Cell phones, TVs and radios can indicate Earthquakes

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Cellular phones, TVs and radios can tell about quakes
From Ravi S. Jha (our correspondent)

21 October 2005


NEW DELHI — Birds and animals living in a seismic prone region are not the only species
that shriek before a high intensity earthquake hits.

There are numerous changes within human beings, as well as in their surroundings, that
can well predict an earthquake as much as about five days in advance.

The cell phones can warn you of an earthquake of a magnitude 6.0 or more. If your mobile
phone suddenly loses signal, while your wife's phone buzzes unnecessarily or handsets of
most of your colleagues play hooky without any reason, beware an epicentre could be
around the corner.

If you tune your radio at 1000 kHz every day but are unable to do it today or are
catching the same at frequencies higher than normal then a tremor can strike close to you, may
be, in less than six hours. Termed as seismo-electromagnetic precursor, both cell phones
and radio, besides TVs can well forewarn an earthquake. M. Night Shyamalan showed radio
signals relating the arrival of 'ghosts' in blockbuster The Sixth Sense, but earth
scientists have begun relying more on such wits to predict high intensity earthquakes. Was the
temperature in Muzaffarabad in the wee hours of October 8 more than 5 above normal? If yes,
then this was an indication enough.

With scientists often failing to get a clear nature of forecast, it is getting
increasingly necessary to detect a reliable precursor that can help save lives. India could be far
behind in reliably predicting earthquakes, but it would not be long before one knows
when, where and how a seismic movement — thousands of metres beneath the earth — can wreak
havoc.

We have acknowledged the sixth sense — a hunch, an instinct — in birds and animals in
predicting seismic activities. Scientists believe the time has come when we focus on other
precursors like thermal, human, water etc. to forewarn earthquake. When active volcanoes'
eruption can be predicted, why not the earthquake?

I recall my days in an army camp in Bhuj, Gujarat, four days after the devastating
earthquake struck in January 2001. Birds, mainly crows, started calling hysterically at 2am.
Dogs howled uncontrollably for more than half-an-hour.

We were asked to move out. No sooner, we did, there was a 6.0 magnitude aftershock that
rocked the earth beneath us. The same birds that shrieked minutes ago fell quiet; dogs
stopped wailing as soon as the tremor was gone.

While animal precursor is trusted world over, other precursors too have been found
equally relevant in predicting earthquake. Earthquake Engineering Research Division at the
Central Water and Power Research Station in Pune points out that human, thermal,
seismo-electromagnetic precursor are equally reliable. Veteran research seismologist Arun Bapat, who
formerly headed the Pune institute, says doctors and nurses observe that some sensitive
patients in hospitals become highly disturbed before the earthquake. "They exhibit a
sudden rise in blood pressure, heart trouble, headache, migraine, respiratory disorders etc.,"
Bapat says.

These psychosomatic signs are manifested without any provocation, he adds. A research
states that the number of patients in the out-patient department in hospitals increases by
five to seven times about 10 to 20 hours before the earthquake. Bapat says in a column
that on the penultimate day of the earthquake the number of child deliveries in hospitals
goes up by about three to five times.

Bapat further says that there is a sudden rise or fall in water level in the wells. "It
could be as high as one metre. Sometimes the well water may turn muddy. At times a
fountain appears inside the well. All these changes happen about one or three days before the
earthquake," he says.